04.04.14

I have positioned the portfolio upon names of strength. $EMES is clearly my favorite name, and obviously our biggest position – but there are risks. There are two mines, which should receive approval for operations, to add to the company’s fuel and fracking business. There are zero guarantees they will receive approval. I believe they will – after listening/talking with folks associated with this project.

Dividend Lab & Option Group Position – and Plans:

We own 600-units, which is a big position considering I sold many other positions,  in the Dividend Lab portfolio. I believe the name has the best potential of any income stock.

We own 30-calls in the option group. I sold 10 $60-strike calls this week.

I have not personally sold any shares and plan on adding more on weakness.

I plan on reinvesting all distributions back into $EMES shares.

Estimates

I believe we will see $80 – $100 by 2015. The distribution should grow. The analysts’ estimates, for 2015, are $8.00-distribution per share. My calculations show $7.25 – $10.00 per share.

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I adjusted the protective puts to $60 to limit downside risk. The recent price action is due to analysts updating their forecasts – based upon Wednesday’s meetings.

For the aggregate portfolio, we have $IWM protective puts in place.

Todd

 

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04.04.14

Hi Everyone,

Just a quick update on $EMES. They provide sand, one business unit, for the fracking sector.

Nothing is a “sure thing”. That’s why I take profits; and use protective puts.

$EMES, however, presented to analysts two days ago.

Here is the nuts-and-bolts’ summary:

1. 2014 Distributions should be $4.50/annual.

A) 1-new mine should come on by May 1st, 2014

B) 1-other new mine should be approved and ready later this year or early 2015. The two factors above are why the volume/price are moving rapidly. Price targets (two I have seen) are $80 and $83. The $83 is ML this morning.

this is a growth MLP…..

2. 2015 Distributions

ML has 2015 distributions at $8.00 as of this morning. My estimates are should be between $7.25 – $10 per unit for 2015

Based upon this forecast – which was known prior to 2-days ago – $EMES could move to $80 – $100/year. This is my goal.

I have a higher % in $EMES personally because I use protective puts; sell spreads, etc. Nobody should just own $EMES in a high portfolio % without some type of protection. I can give you 1,000 of worst case scenarios.

Summary
I like $EMES to make money for us.

Thanks & I hope everyone has a great weekend.

Todd/Mike/Mike

 

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