Trade Alerts

25-Jun-2015 Private Group Rolls

By Todd Johnson on 26-Jun-2015 11:08 am (2 years ago)Private Alert

25-Jun-2015 Option Rolls

By Todd Johnson on 25-Jun-2015 14:11 pm (2 years ago)Options Alert
Hello all, We have several weekly rolls, expiring this Friday. We roll them to the July 2nd - note it's Thursday, as markets are closed on Friday. Let's roll these positions: [order... (more)

Jason’s Alert on IWM position

By Todd Johnson on 25-Jun-2015 13:33 pm (2 years ago)Alert
Hello all, Alert Our IWM $126-strike July puts, which entered at $1.12 on Monday, reached a bid of $1.45, our price target, at 2:18pm ET today. We should take our profits of nearly 30% here. Jason ... (more)

Jason’s BigDeaL Trade Alert #12

By Todd Johnson on 25-Jun-2015 11:16 am (2 years ago)Alert
On Monday I said things would be looking better for our open positions if we waited to take action until today, and I was right. We were down $300 on our BA credit call spread as Big Deal #11's publication, but we're up $150 as of this writing at 10:15am ET. Our UUP September calls have jumped 46% from a bid of $0.28 to $0.41 in that time, even though we're still down on the play. Our GILD credit call spread had gotten away from us as the underlying stock continued its monstrous outperformance, but our unrealized losses have been trimmed, slightly. Our bullish positions in DOW and GLD are down from Monday, but our IWM July puts, which we entered at $1.12, traded at $1.42 earlier this morning, up more than 26% from our Monday entry price. So far in the six weeks that we've been publishing these options newsletters, we've closed out a total of five positions – four winners, one loser – for net gains of $1,923 on an average position size of less than $1,922. But among our six open positions, four are currently losing and the losses are bigger than our open winners' gains. On Monday I said we'd be looking at taking some risk off the board in today's newsletter, rather than entering a new position. This issue of the Big DeaL will be focused on recalibration and regrouping, and we'll reenter the markets with a lighter load on our shoulders Monday. With six open positions, we currently have nearly $12,000 at risk. Rather than adding another two grand to the mix, I think we need to take some of that risk off the board. We could capture the gains on our two winners and let our losers ride in the hope that they recover, but that's a rookie mistake. All things equal, it's much better to take your losses and let your winners run – and that's what we're going to do. ... (more)

Jason’s BigDeaL Trade Alert #11

By Todd Johnson on 22-Jun-2015 11:31 am (2 years ago)Alert
A new investment theme has emerged over the past couple of weeks: U.S. inflation. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the consumer price index jumped by 0.4% in May, the biggest rise since February 2013 and the fourth-straight monthly gain. Investors sold longer-dated bonds and bought short-term Treasurys and TIPS – Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities – as the combination of Fed dovishness and economic growth signaled that inflation is likely to eat up coupon payments. This will be bearish for U.S.-centric stocks, too, such as financials and those in the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks. Inflation should be good for our credit put spread on gold, even though the precious metal is down in early trading today. The dollar is down, too, which is marginally bad for our long-term calls on UUP, but they've been hit so hard and have so much time until expiration, that they remain more likely to go up than down. We're in the GLD/ UUP play for the long haul, given the September expirations, and I still think we'll make out on the pair despite the way the market has whipsawed us thus far. ... (more)

Dividend Lab Private Group: Tweaking Cyber IT Names!!

By Todd Johnson on 21-Jun-2015 23:40 pm (2 years ago)Alert
06.21.15 Private Group: Adjusting Dividend Lab Private Group Positions. I want to make sure we don't sit pat and watch the money go out the door in a market decline. Hi Folks, For ... (more)

Dividend Lab: OUR $WMB SAYS “NO” to 33% SPIKE BUYOUT

By Todd Johnson on 21-Jun-2015 23:26 pm (2 years ago)Alert
06.21.15 Hi Folks, One of our holdings rejected a 33% increase on its shares. This is good news. I am likely to add 4-5 high quality names in this sector that has been knocked down. ... (more)

19-Jun-2015 Private Group Rolls, part 3

By Todd Johnson on 19-Jun-2015 10:32 am (2 years ago)Private Alert

19-Jun-2015 Option Rolls, part 2

By Todd Johnson on 19-Jun-2015 9:37 am (2 years ago)Options Alert
Hello all, this is 2nd part of our rolls for the week. We have also some closeouts and adjustments (BIB, WLL) ... (more)

18-Jun-2015 Private Group Rolls, part 2

By Todd Johnson on 18-Jun-2015 14:38 pm (2 years ago)Private Alert

18-Jun-2015 Private Group Rolls, part 1

By Todd Johnson on 18-Jun-2015 14:07 pm (2 years ago)Private Alert

18-Jun-2015 Option Rolls, part 1

By Todd Johnson on 18-Jun-2015 11:45 am (2 years ago)Options Alert
Hello all, We have quite a few rolls this week (like every 3rd week of the month), so we split rolls to 2 emails. We also open new IWM hedge and close our successful FB position. ... (more)

Jason’s BigDeaL Trade Alert #10

By Todd Johnson on 18-Jun-2015 11:29 am (2 years ago)Alert
The Federal Reserve's policy statement, released at 2pm ET Wednesday, sent the U.S. dollar cratering. Even though the Fed's words were more hawkish than the market's real consensus prior to the statement, the Fed itself moderated its expectations from its March policy statement, leading traders to form an even more dovish view. In the eyes of traders, the Fed has lost all credibility, and despite the fact that the central bank's words indicate a likely September "liftoff," the market doesn't buy it. Fed funds futures' estimate for the likelihood of a September hike slipped from 28% before the statement to 22% afterward, and in early trading today, the dollar is near multi-month lows. ... (more)

Jason’s BigDeaL Trade Alert #9

By Todd Johnson on 15-Jun-2015 11:16 am (2 years ago)Alert, , ,
Losses on our AAPL position can be more than recovered by taking profits on our QQQ credit spread. We're also looking better on our BA and GILD positions, as the markets have resumed their downtrends. This week, I'm looking at GLD (gold – not to be confused with Gilead!) to hedge our UUP position, but first, let's take a look back at our first losing trade: Apple Postmortem Last Thursday in Big Deal #8, I set a $0.55 stop-loss on our AAPL $131-strike June calls. The options fell to $0.55 about two hours after publication, causing us to take a painful 64% loss on our $1,989 risked. Ouch. Of course, getting $0.55 was much better than the $0.09 the calls were trading at early on Monday, and the $0.55 stop-loss was designed to protect against a "total loss." ... (more)

Big Deal: 06.15,14

By Todd Johnson on 15-Jun-2015 2:23 am (2 years ago)Options Alert
06.14.15 --- Hi Folks: Predicting what the stock market should do should be easy. Simply determine what interest rates will be in 6-months and identify the price of oil in 1-year's ... (more)

Big Deal: 06.12.15 #Email #2

By Todd Johnson on 12-Jun-2015 14:42 pm (2 years ago)Options Alert
06.12.15 --- 1. $PANW: Let's Buy (5) $177.50 Calls, Expiry July 2015. This is a high growth name in the IT-security hacking sector. This name has tripled, or close to, since we e... (more)

12-Jun-2015 Private Group Rolls

By Todd Johnson on 12-Jun-2015 12:46 pm (2 years ago)Private Alert

11-Jun-2015 Option Rolls

By Todd Johnson on 11-Jun-2015 12:47 pm (2 years ago)Options Alert
Hello all, We closed some positions yesterday; so only three positions need update today: ... (more)

Jason’s BigDeaL Trade Alert #8

By Todd Johnson on 11-Jun-2015 11:14 am (2 years ago)Alert,
After topping out on May 20, stocks went into a precipitous decline that ended, at least for the time-being, in a doji at the bottom of their downtrend – a telegraphed reversal signal. Stocks surged by 1.2% yesterday and the S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY) reclaimed its Bollinger midpoint (dotted blue line) in early trading on Thursday. Our open positions have lost ground since Monday, due to our bearish bent, while our one bullish position opened this morning roughly where it was when Big Deal #7 was published. ... (more)

Big Deal Trades: Portfolio Construction Changes; 06.10.15

By Todd Johnson on 10-Jun-2015 14:09 pm (2 years ago)Options Alert
06.10.15 Hi Everyone, - I will be making changes over the next 2-days. Key issues to take into consideration: 1) the rapid descent of many stocks due to interest rates. 2) the... (more)

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