The stock market shrugged off the release of the Fed’s late-April meeting minutes on Wednesday, as bullish traders chose to interpret the release as an indication that the Fed will push back its interest-rate liftoff. In truth, the minutes simply downplayed the likelihood of a June rate hike, which the futures market had already priced at a 0% probability, and seemed to indicate a likely September hike.

The dollar has gained strength and the euro has weakened, as I projected in the Big Deal #1. Oil has also tumbled. But the market’s reaction to the Fed minutes on Wednesday signaled a reversal in these trends, albeit a light and I think temporary one. Below are five-day charts for the euro and oil, as gauged by the CurrencyShares Euro ETF (ticker: FXE) and the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO). (more…)